As many readers of my blog are aware, I was trying to return to the Congo two weeks ago for the presidential runoff. Despite a few generous offers, time restraints and other commitments kept me in Canada. Despite this, I have been following the situation daily, including regular email updates from people in Kinshasa. There are also many fairly mainstream news agencies following the story...

At present, we are awaiting the results of the runoff to decide on the Congo's first democratically elected president. As expected, the rhetoric between the two candidates has been less than helpful to the process. Recent accusations from the Bemba camp are that results are being systematically manipulated in favour of Kabila.

This morning I received a piece from a group called "les Patriotes Congolais," calling for the arrest of Kabila, and imposition of Bemba as president, based on a list of shaky and somewhat unprovable accusations. To be certain, this is no red herring. The amount of distrust for Kabila in the capital is tangible in every conversation, and lines most news reports and stories not coming directly out of the president's ring of propaganda media.

Partial results have been released by the Electoral Commission (CEI) in the hopes of preventing the kind of violence that erupted in late August, though it hasn't worked out that way. Last week Bemba's camp made accusations of results being consistantly slanted towards Kabila in comparison with official polling station reports collected on election day.

Though pledging to following the legal appeal process, Bemba has not proven able to control his supporters, nor has he shown any interest or attempt to do so, despite promising after the August violence to abstain from further fighting. Already a handful of people have died from this recent spate of street battles, at least two victims being innocent civilians hit by stray bullets.

The UN is present, along with EUFOR, should things get out of hand, but has left this apparent lack of law and order to the local authorities.

As with any democratic struggle, the question at hand is one of political accountability and responsibility, and ultimately comes down to the ability of the public to trust both political candidates and the process itself. Clearly these qualities are seriously lacking at many levels.

The striking difference at present is that the Kabila camp is keeping quiet. Recent results (though released with warnings not to be used for projection purposes), show Kabila leading with around 60% of the counted ballots. Despite CEI caution, the trend is unmistakeable.

It is also very telling, in light of this, that the Bemba camp is stepping up their offensive, challenging the results, the process, and in the case of "les Patriotes Congolais," challenging the legitimacy of the opponent and the head of the electoral commission, Abbé Malu-Malu.

The Kinshasa ceasefire signed after the August violence is of little comfort. Unless the CEI can adequately and openly address Bemba's claims of vote manipulation, Bemba will not be able to control his supporters, and there will be significantly more bloodshed on the streets of Kinshasa. Moreover, the resulting political climate in the capital city could tarnish the incoming administration to the degree that the capital region simply becomes ungovernable.

As the UN and EUFOR start packing their bags they would be well advised to keep an eye on the power shift as the new government comes to power. Those few days of changes may make all the difference.