Congo election shows worrying East-West divide

By David Lewis
Reuters
Friday, August 4, 2006; 11:35 AM

KINSHASA (Reuters) - Far from unifying the war-ravaged Democratic Republic of Congo, Sunday's historic elections have highlighted the deep division between the east and west of the vast former Belgian colony.

The July 30th polls were meant to heal wounds after a brutal 1998-2003 war which tore apart Congo's aging infrastructure and killed four million people, mostly from hunger and disease.

Results are still weeks away but indicators point to a landslide victory for President Joseph Kabila in his native Swahili-speaking east while former rebel and Vice-President Jean-Pierre Bemba is ahead in the west, where Lingala is spoken.

"The DR Congo Cut In Two" read a headline in Le Phare, a Kinshasa daily.

Diplomats and analysts warned the trend could encourage politicians to exploit ethnic differences and make the central African state ungovernable for whoever wins the presidency.

"There is nothing that new in this phenomenon. What has happened is that the election has crystallized and quantified this divide," said Bob Kabamba, a Congolese politics professor.

"The fear I have is that it could undermine the legitimacy of whoever wins. People will either say 'he is a president for the East' or 'he is a president for the West'."

Power shifts in the turbulent mineral-rich country's history can be charted along ethnic and linguistic lines.

Belgian colonial administrators ensured Lingala, from the west, became the language of power and the army. The trend continued under the late dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, who came from the northwestern province of Equateur.

But the tables were turned when Laurent Kabila, Joseph's father, marched across the former Zaire from the east, accompanied by a band of Swahili-speaking child soldiers who helped him overthrow Mobutu in 1997.

BRANDED A "FOREIGNER"

The current Kabila -- who came to power when his father was shot dead in 2001 -- remains favorite to win the elections even though he has struggled to win the support of the Lingala-speaking capital, where many see him is a foreigner.

During his final campaign rally, Kabila spoke through an interpreter. Bemba, on the other hand, has campaigned strongly on nationalistic lines, calling himself the "son of the nation."

If neither candidate wins more than fifty percent of the vote, there will be a run-off on October 29.

With so much at stake, analysts warn of problems ahead if that occurs. Already in the first round, debates often centered on ethnic and nationalist issues rather than policies.

"A second round, if it is fought along these lines, would be even dirtier and more divisive for the country," said Jason Stearns, analyst at the International Crisis Group think-tank.

Diplomats, meanwhile, express hope parliamentary elections, also held on Sunday, will help provide a balance of powers between the east and the west.

Despite threats of violence in the east and riots in the capital, polling day went relatively well. The days following the polls, however, have been marked by complaints and embittered threats of challenges to the results.

Ahead of the ballot, the EU deployed some 1,000 soldiers to support the U.N.'s 17,000 blue helmets already in the country.

But many have seen this as an attempt to ensure the international community gets the result it wants from an election that has cost it over $450 million. Two of Kabila's closest rivals have accused foreign powers of being partial.

"If Kabila wins, I see a lot of noise and a lot of people will try and weaken his power, but that is part of the process," one Western diplomat told Reuters.

© 2006 Reuters